Television operates in seasons. Fall premieres, spring finales and limited summer series run on a strict timeline the networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX) have long utilized to produce foresighted ratings and strategic ad revenue. However, whether these networks are aware of it or not, we as viewers are living amidst their imminent demise.
It is becoming increasing evident that the big networks cannot compete with the options available to the viewer as well as the quality of the shows available elsewhere. A Netflix or Hulu does not have to bow to a Standards & Practices department nor to a board of conglomerated investors. Instead viewer interest based on “streaming ratings” and demographic algorithms dictate the development of content created. For every Bloodline (Netflix) that exists, ABC develops a show that follows H.G. Wells and his time machine, from the past, to pursue Jack the Ripper from murdering residents of New York City in 2016 – all while wearing an H&M V-neck and skinny jeans. (Not a farce, ABC presented this show at Upfronts last week for a primetime series order).
Where is the disconnect? Who watches these shows and why do over 70% of them fail right out of the gate come September?
Two schools of thought:
- Networks simply don’t care and could care even less about the quality of what they produce, as long as ad revenue is consistently generated and their company stock is steady.
- Networks do care and place just enough trust in their creators to produce content yet the creative voices that exist in current network TV have moved themselves to the mecca of 3rd party streaming opportunity, leaving show runners behind to sacrifice artistry for quips about sponsored Tide detergent on Blue Bloods.
Probably it’s a bit of both.
Variety’s March 3, 2016 article cites Netflix caused 50% of U.S. TV Viewing to drop in 2015, it further explains:
In 2015, Netflix accounted for about half of the overall 3% decline in TV viewing time among U.S. audiences, according to a new study by Michael Nathanson of Moffett Nathanson. The analyst calculated that based on an estimate that Netflix’s domestic subs streamed 29 billion hours of video last year (Netflix said members worldwide watched 42.5 billion hours in 2015). Moreover, Nathanson predicts Netflix’s total streaming hours as a percentage of TV viewing will continue to rise to about 14% by 2020. “Currently, Netflix is a source of industry pain, but not necessarily a cause of industry death.”
Content aside, networks are trying to assimilate themselves to current trends to revitalize their lineups. Show orders are now shrinking from the standard 22-24 Episodes to 13 – showcasing them as “event series” a la the British format. A follow-up Variety article reports on TV’s new normal in the wake of the upcoming 2016-17 television landscape:
“We’ve been more strategic in our scheduling discussions this year because of all the election, live events, football, and holiday fare throughout the year,” says NBC Entertainment president Jennifer Salke. “We are looking for straight runs for these shows, with the fewest interruptions. The serialized shows can especially benefit from a clean run in a world where audiences have so many choices.”
“…Unprecedented competition from an increased number of platforms offering an increased number of original series has fueled this shift — and has had a profound impact on the current upfront season.” (Variety 5-17-16)
The model is altered, but content’s the same. This essentially proves systematic Nielsen ratings hold no relevance – other than to validate ad buyer investments at Upfront week. The new ratings validation system… Twitter, Facebook. Direct viewer interface is what will be the driving factor for future television survival.
“Facebook, taking its latest shot in its social TV battle with Twitter, released the finding of a new study that shows that 60% of TV related interactions on Facebook happen while the show being discussed is on the air.”
“When looked at holistically, real-time activity around TV and sport on the Facebook platform is hugely compelling and there are important commercial implications, … Audience measurement, TV planning, content discovery, direct response advertising, TV commissioning and research are just some of the sectors that will benefit from the insights coming out of the world’s biggest social network.” (BroadcastingCableOnline)
